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作者	单位
李璠，校瑞香，严应存，赵梦凡，李菲，颜亮东	（1.青海省气象科学研究所，青海西宁 810001；2.青海省防灾减灾重点实验室，青海西宁 810001）

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中文摘要:

为了解气候变化对青海省青稞物候期的影响，选取门源和贵南2个青稞观测站点物候期资料和逐日气象观测资料，采用统计学方法，分析了青稞生长季光温水气象要素变化特征以及青稞物候的演化趋势，并探讨青稞物候期变化的气候驱动因子。结果表明，1980-2020年青海省青稞主产区生长季气温以0.4 ℃·10 a^-1的速率极显著升高，门源降水量以44 mm·10 a^-1的速率极显著增加，贵南降水增速不显著，主产区日照时数明显以39 h·10 a^-1的速率减少。青稞物候期在生育前期推迟，在生育后期提前，其中播种期推迟0.6~1.5 d，成熟期提前8.5~11.0 d，生育期时长缩短10.2~12.0 d，物候期和生育期时长变化速率在两地表现不一。温度是影响青稞物候期变化的主要因素，生育前期和后期的气温与物候期分别呈正相关和负相关，阶段性气温与各生育期时长均呈显著负相关；降水量与物候期和生育期时长均呈正相关，但均不显著；日照时数主要影响生育期时长，对物候期影响不显著。

英文摘要:

In order to understand the effect of climate change on the phenology of hulless barley in Qinghai Province,the change characteristics of meteorological elements of light,temperature and precipitation and the trend of highland barley phenology were analyzed with the phenological data and daily meteorological data of two highland barley observation stations in Menyuan and Guinan by statistical methods.The climate driving factors of barley phenology were also discussed. The results showed that temperature increased significantly at a rate of 0.4 ℃ per decade,and sunshine hours decreased significantly at a rate of 39 h per decade in the main production areas of hulless barley from 1980 to 2020.The precipitation increased significantly at a rate of 44 mm per decade in Menyuan,but no significance in Guinan. The phenology of hulless barley was delayed at the early growth stage but advanced at the late growth stage. The sowing date was delayed by 0.6-1.5 d,but the maturity stage was advanced by 8.5-11.0 d,and thus the growth period was shortened by 10.2-12.0 d. The change rate of phenology and growth period was different between the two places.Temperature was the main factor affecting the phenological change of hulless barley. The temperature was positively correlated with the early phenological period,but was negatively correlated with the late phenological period. The stage temperature was negatively correlated with length of growth period. Precipitation was positively correlated with phenology and length of growth period,but with no significant.Sunshine hours mainly affected length of growth period and have no significant effect on phenological period.

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