| 高雪慧，刘 强，王 钧.基于APSIM模型播期对未来气候变化情景下旱地春小麦产量和生育期影响的模拟分析[J].麦类作物学报,2022,(6):738 |
| 基于APSIM模型播期对未来气候变化情景下旱地春小麦产量和生育期影响的模拟分析 |
| Simulation of Sowing Dates Influencing on Yield and Growth Period of Spring Wheat in Dryland under Future Climate Change Scenarios Based on APSIM Model |
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| DOI：10.7606/j.issn.1009-1041.2022.06.11 |
| 中文关键词: 未来气候变化 春小麦 APSIM-wheat 生物量 陇中黄土丘陵沟壑区 |
| 英文关键词:Future climate change Spring wheat APSIM-wheat Biomass Longzhong loess hilly gully area |
| 基金项目:甘肃省高等学校创新基金项目(2021B-122)；甘肃省教育厅产业支撑计划项目(2021CYZC-15)；甘肃农业大学学科发展基金项目(GAU-XKFZJJ-2020-13); 甘肃省自然科学基金项目(20JR10RA509) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为明确未来气候变化与播期调控对旱地春小麦（Triticum aestivum L.）产量的互作效应，以陇中黄土丘陵沟壑区为研究区域，首先利用甘肃农业大学试验区2016-2018年不同播期下的春小麦产量和生育日期对APSIM-Wheat模型进行适用性验证，然后基于RegCM4.6模型和HadGEM2-ES预测两个典型气候情景RCP4.5和RCP8.5下西北地区未来2020-2060年的气候变化，最后通过验证后的APSIM-Wheat模型结合未来气象数据，模拟RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下不同播期（早播、正常播、晚播）对试验区2007-2019（基准期）、2020-2060年（未来分析期）春小麦生育期、产量和生物量的影响。结果表明，APSIM-Wheat模型能够较精确地模拟试验区小麦产量和生育日期。在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下，2020-2060年年均日最高温度较基准期分别升高0.8和0.9 ℃，年均日最低温度分别升高0.9 和1.1 ℃，降水量分别增加31.5 和44.2 mm，升高趋势均表现为RCP8.5> RCP4.5；不同气候情景下随着播期的推迟，小麦生育阶段天数较基准期不同程度缩短；两种气候情景下，2020-2060 年早播、正常播和晚播处理的春小麦产量和生物量较基准期均增加，产量增长率表现为早播>正常播>晚播，生物量增长率表现为正常播>早播>晚播；2种气候情景下播期调控对春小麦播种到出苗、出苗到开花阶段的影响均达到极显著水平。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In order to clarify the interaction effect of future climate change and sowing date regulation on the yield of dryland spring wheat(Triticum aestivum L.),taking the Loess Hilly and gully area in Central Gansu as the research area,the applicability of APSIM wheat model was verified using the yield and growth date of spring wheat under different sowing dates in the experimental station of Gansu Agricultural University from 2016 to 2018.Based on the RegCM4.6 model and HadGEM2-ES,the climate change of Northwestern China under two typical climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 was predicted from 2020 to 2060.Through the verified APSIM model combined with future meteorological data,the effects of different sowing dates(early sowing,normal sowing and late sowing) on the growth period,yield and biomass of spring wheat in the experimental area from 2007 to 2019(base period) and from 2020 to 2060(future analysis period) were simulated under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.The results showed that APSIM model could accurately simulate wheat yield and phenological date in the experimental area.Under the scenario of RCP4.5(RCP8.5),the annual average daily maximum temperature and annual average daily minimum temperature in 2020-2060 were significantly increased by 0.8 ℃(0.9 ℃) and 0.9 ℃(1.1 ℃) than that in the base period,and the rainfall was increased by 31.5 mm(44.2 mm),with an increasing trend of RCP8.5> RCP4.5.The duration of wheat growth stage in different climate scenarios was shortened compared with the base period to different degrees with the delay of sowing date.Under the two climatic scenarios,the yield and biomass of spring wheat under early sowing,normal sowing and late sowing in 2020-2060 increased compared with the base period,and the yield growth rate ranked as early sowing >normal sowing >late sowing,and biomass growth rate ranked as normal sowing > early sowing >late sowing. The effects of sowing date regulation on spring wheat from germination to seedling emergence and from seedling emergence to flowering reached significant levels under the two climatic scenarios. |
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