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为了预测未来气候变暖条件下北部冬麦区冬小麦生育期变化趋势，基于农业气象观测站数据和区域气候模拟系统PRECIS产生的RCP4.5气候情景数据，采用活动积温法、累计热生长单位法和生长速率估测法分别对我国北部冬麦区三个代表站点（霸州、介休和西峰镇）冬小麦拔节、抽穗和成熟期进行拟合分析，选用拟合精度较高的模型模拟冬小麦生育期，分析未来研究区冬小麦各生育时期和生育阶段的演变特征。结果表明：（1）生长速率估测法对冬小麦拔节和抽穗期的模拟结果较好，活动积温法对成熟期的模拟较精确。（2）冬前生育时期推迟，冬后则均呈提前趋势。2031-2090年，播种、越冬开始、返青、拔节、抽穗和成熟期的变化趋势分别为1.8、1.7、-2.4、-1.2、-1.0、-1.2 d·10 a^-1，均达到极显著水平（P<0.01）。但2061-2090年生育时期的变化较2031-2060年减缓，且未来冬前生育时期较基准期（1976-2005年）的变化幅度比冬后大。除了越冬开始，麦区西部的西峰镇冬小麦各生育时期变化趋势的绝对值均最大，东部的霸州均最小。（3）越冬期和播种-成熟阶段缩短，返青-拔节阶段延长，其他阶段变化均不显著。播种-成熟阶段天数的变化主要是由于越冬期的缩短。

英文摘要:

Based on the agricultural meteorological station data and the future scenario data of RCP4.5(simulated by PRECIS),the fitting accuracy of three representative stations(Bazhou,Jiexiu and Xifeng town) of winter wheat in Northern China(Bazhou,Jiexiu and Xifeng town) were compared by using active accumulated temperature model,accumulated thermal development unit model and development rate estimation model. The model with high precision was selected to simulate the corresponding phenology and to analyze the future evolution characteristics of winter wheat phenology in the study region.The results showed that:(1) the development rate estimation model had better simulation results for the jointing and heading stages of winter wheat,and the active accumulated temperature model was more accurate for the simulation of maturity stage.(2) The growth periods of winter wheat was delayed before overwintering and advanced after overwintering. From 2031 to 2090,the trends of sowing,beginning of overwintering,regreening,jointing,heading and maturity stages were 1.8,1.7, -2.4,-1.2,-1.0,-1.2 d ·10 a^-1,which reached a significant level(P<0.01). However,the change in the growth periods during 2061-2090 was slower than that in 2031-2060.Compared with the baseline period(1976-2005),the change range of the growth periods before winter was larger than that after winter in the future. Except from the start of overwintering,the absolute value of the change trend of growth periods in Xifeng(in the west of wheat zone) was the largest,while that in Bazhou(in the east of wheat zone) is the smallest.(3) The overwintering stage and the sowing-maturity stage were shortened,but the regreening-jointing stage was prolonged,while the changes in other stages were not significant. The variation of days in the sowing-maturity stage was mainly due to the shortening of the overwintering period.

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