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为了解气候变暖对小麦生长和产量的影响，利用我国黄淮海地区1990-2009年107个气象站点逐日气温、降水等气象资料和105个农作物生长发育观测点物候资料，以及历史冬小麦产量数据，分析近20年内黄淮海地区冬小麦生育期农业气候资源、生育期及产量变化特征。利用多元回归分析方法，分析了小麦生育进程变化特征及气候因子与产量的关系。结果表明，近20年黄淮海地区冬小麦生育期内最高温度（T_max）、平均温度（T_avg）和最低温度（T_min）均呈上升趋势，平均每年分别增加0.059、0.058和0.062 ℃。近20年黄淮海地区由于冬小麦播种日期推迟，抽穗和成熟日期均提前，营养生长期（播种到抽穗）缩短（平均每年缩短0.41 d），生殖生长期（抽穗到成熟）延长（平均每年延长0.24 d），而整个生育进程平均每年缩短0.17 d。黄淮海地区20年中冬小麦产量均呈显著增加趋势。采用非线性法面板模型分析表明，除山东省外，T_max、T_avg和T_min升高对冬小麦产量均有正效应，主要原因是生殖生长期有所延长，增加了灌浆结实时间，以及气候变暖促使冬小麦有效分蘖增加。T_max、T_avg和T_min每升高1 ℃，小麦增产0.62%～4.78%。山东省冬小麦产量随着温度升高呈现出下降的趋势，可能是由于海洋性气候带来的高温影响。

英文摘要:

In this paper, using the daily air temperature, precipitation and other meteorological data in 107 meteorological stations and phenological data in 105 observation sites for crop growth and development, as well as the winter wheat yield data in the huang-huai-hai region (HHH, similar below) of China since 1990-2009, the growing season characteristics of agricultural climate resources for winter wheat, and its growth period variation and changes of yields were analyzed. The multiple regression analysis method was used to analyze the process of winter wheat growth characteristics and the relationship between climate factors and yield.The results showed that in the past 20 years, the diurnal maximum temperature(T_max), minimum temperature (T_min) and average temperature (T_avg) in the winter wheat growing season in HHH region was on the rise, with 0.059, 0.058 and 0.062 ℃ increase per year, respectively. For nearly 20 years in HHH region, due to delays in sowing date of winter wheat and in advances of heading and maturity date, the vegetative stage (sowing to heading) showed a trend of shortening, with 0.41 d shorter on average per year. Reproductive stage (heading to maturity) showed a trend of extending, with the average of 0.24 d longer per year. The whole growth process was shortened by 0.17 d on average per year. The yield of winter wheat production tended to increase significantly for 20 years in HHH region. Analysis using panel model nonlinear method showed that the increase of T_min, T_avg and T_max had positive effects on winter wheat yield in the other 5 provinces except Shandong province. The longer reproductive stage was benefit to increase grain-filling duration, and warming promoted more tillers for winter wheat. Increase in 1 ℃ for T_min, T_avg and T_max, leaded to 0.62%~4.78% yield increase. The downward trend with increasing temperatures of winter wheat yield in Shandong province may be due to high temperatures caused by the maritime climate.

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