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为了解河南省冬小麦生育期气候资源的时空特征及对冬小麦生长发育和产量的影响，利用河南省17个国家气象站点和 16个长期物候观察点数据以及18个地级市历史产量数据，采用数理统计方法和GIS空间插值法分析了河南省近20年来冬小麦生育进程、生长季温度和降水量的变化以及各地级市冬小麦产量与气候的关系。结果表明，河南省冬小麦生育期温度均呈上升趋势，且夜间升温明显，全生育期平均温度增加趋势为0.067℃·a^-1。空间上平均气温和最低气温上升最明显的是中部地区，升温幅度最高分别达到0.09和0.13℃·a^-1；最高气温上升最明显的为西部地区，升温幅度为0.1℃·a^-1。生育期降水量呈下降趋势，其中南部地区减少最明显，其次是中部地区，大部分地区减少幅度为2.5~3.5 mm·a^-1 。冬小麦全生育期天数2000年后比20世纪90年代缩短4 d，主要表现为营养生长期缩短。空间上全生育期和营养生长期缩短的天数和生殖生长期延长的天数从北向南递增。产量与气候因子非线性分析表明，西部地区冬小麦产量与生育期平均温度、最高温度和最低温度均呈负相关，温度升高1℃，减产可达8.0%以上。最低温度升高导致大部分地区冬小麦减产。降水对各地区历年产量变化的影响不大。

英文摘要:

In order to know the effect of climate change on the yield and growth of winter wheat in Henan province, data from 17 meteorological stations,16 phenological sites and 18 cities were collected. Mathematical statistics and GIS spatial interpolation (Inverse Distance Weighting) was applied to reveal the spatial and temporal characteristics of development process and climate changes during winter wheat growing season, based on the records of winter wheat growth process, the growing season temperature and precipitation in the last 20 years. The key factors of climatic to production were analyzed with the datasets of wheat yield and climate over the period 1991-2009 in prefecture level city, Henan province. The results showed that, over the last twenty years, the diurnal mean, minimum and maximum temperature at each growth stage of winter wheat showed an upward trend with nighttime warming obviously while increased by 0.067℃·a^-1 on average in Henan province. The average and minimum temperature in the middle area had the largest increase with 0.09 and 0.13℃·a^-1 compared to others, respectively, while the maximum temperature increased 0.1℃·a^-1 in the west area. The increase level of minimum temperature was higher than that of the daily average and maximum temperature in the most middle area.Precipitation showed a slight decreasing trend. The most obvious reduction was occurred in the southern region of Henan province, followed by that in the central region, and the reduction ranged from 2.5 mm to 3.5 mm in the most region in Henan province. The growth periods of winter wheat were shortened 4 d in the 2000s compared to those in the 1990s in Henan province, mainly shortened for the vegetative growth stage. Days of the whole growth, vegetative growth period of winter wheat were shorted by 0.25 and 0.52 d·a^-1, respectively. However, days of the reproductive growth prolonged by 0.27 d·a^-1. Different spatial distribution features of development period changes were found on winter wheat in Henan province, with a band distribution. Days of the whole growth, vegetative growth period shortening and reproductive growth increment extended from north to south. ≥0℃ accumulated temperature had obvious influence on winter wheat growth process. Growth process was accelerated and growth period was shortened, by the temperature increasing, because accumulated temperature required in the growth stages of winter wheat was constant. Nonlinear analysis of yield and climate factors indicated that there was negatively correlation between the yield of winter wheat in the western region with the diurnal mean, minimum and maximum temperature. With the temperature rising by 1℃, the yield of winter wheat descended more than 8.0%. With the minimum temperature increasing, the yield of the winter wheat in the most regions was descended. Precipitation had little influence on the change of the winter wheat yield.

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